STORM FORECAST
VALID Fri 10 Feb 06:00 - Sat 11 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 09 Feb 19:13 (UTC)
FORECASTER: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Well developed upper-level trough / placed over central Europe / will be nearly stationary during the next 24 hours...Attendant low-level depression moves slowly towards the SE and is forecast to tranform into an open wave somewhere east of Austria...Over most parts of Europe, significant TSTM development is not expected, because of cool and stable conditions....Although isolated, weakly electrified TSTMS can still develop under the base of this trough, expect a decrease in all-over activity due to weakening LL depression.
TSTM threat will be marginal along the extreme SW coast of Portugal, but slightly cooler mid-level airmass could yield enough instability for a few isolated TSTMs.

DISCUSSION

...Eastern Mediterranean...
Broad area of weak pressure falls forecasted over most parts of SE Europe... Steepening lapse rates due to advection of cold mid-level airmass over the ~12°C Mediterranean should produce at least widespread low-end CAPE values....Main focus for TSTM development looks like to be a southward moving cold front ( although slowing down significantly )...There will be an isolated waterspout/severe wind gust risk mainly along the coastal areas, where the LL shear is enhanced.

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